Industry Braces for De Facto Strike, Members Urged to Prepare for Ramp Up and Slowdown

Industry analysts are reporting ramped-up deal making and pre-strike stockpiling as producers prepare for a real or de-facto strike in the fall. Veterans of the 2001 de facto strike are advising Local 600 members to prepare. In that strike, studios shot extra shows and movies in the first two quarters of the year in advance of negotiations. Then work fell to a third of that level for the next several quarters, according to the number of filming days around Los Angeles.

Film writers are facing heightened pressure while those in television are being asked to deliver extra episodes of television shows to shore up for the fall. One lawyer with a firm representing television actors, writers and producers, told the New York Times of a recent outsize order for 30 episodes of the NBC series “Heroes.” Actors are reportedly being lined up for movies before June 30, 2008 when the SAG and DGA contracts expire. The writers’ contract expires this October. Meanwhile, no films are being set to shoot next July.

Local 600 President Steven Poster says no member should feel insulated from the anticipated strike. In 1978, he recalled, he was on location in West Texas during an industry strike.

“We all thought we’d continue to work despite the strike because it was a big Universal show,” he said. “But the next day, a man came out in a pickup truck and told us the show was shut down. The strike lasted for 17 weeks. I almost lost everything. Don’t expect to be exempt. Be prepared.”

Studios are reportedly especially interested in projects that can be filmed by next June. Industry analysts anticipate several weeks of quick deals, with productions dramatically speeding up in the second half of the year through February.

According to observers, studios are trying to avoid repeating the mistakes of the last stockpile in 2001 before a possible strike, when they rushed a series of mediocre films into production. A late-year production rush could lead to a huge demand for directors of photography and crew members.

A forecast by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp released in earlier in the year said the high risk of real or de-facto strike means that film industry employment could drop substantially in 2008.

“The studios are already in stockpiling mode , and they will continue to stockpile scripts and product if they can,” said Jack Kyser, LACED’s chief economist. “So it could be a roller coaster period for anybody who is connected with the industry.”

The report estimated the total number of regional film and TV jobs will rise 4.5% to 170,300 in 2007 before falling 1.4% to 167,900 due to strike uncertainty. It also predicted that about 2,000 of the lost positions will be in film production, with most of the remaining because of strike-related TV retrenchment.

The WGA’s decision last year to brush off early talks and wait until the summer to start negotiations first sparked concerns about a de facto strike. In May 2004, the WGA let its contract expire and didn’t reach an agreement until after the DGA, five months later.

IATSE President Tom Short lambasted the WGA for the decision to forego early talks.

"IA working families will not only lose their livelihoods but the work hours necessary to keep them eligible for health insurance, pensions and other IA benefits," Short said in a statement after the decision was announced.

In the same press release, the union criticized WGA leadership generally and a couple of executives in particular.

"(Short) has accused the leadership of the WGA West of irresponsibility and incompetence in their refusal to meet with the AMPTP and begin negotiations on a new contract in January, as they themselves proposed," IATSE charged. "Early talks would have shown willingness on the part of the WGA to avoid a work stoppage that will almost certainly result from delayed talks."

WGA talks were set for July 16 and the union’s leadership is calling for boosting members’ cut of revenues from new-media platforms and gaining jurisdiction over reality shows.